This is a simple first preference and public funding predictor based on the 2025 Australian federal election.
This looks at the first preference vote at the 2025 election and models future public funding based on demographic change
- This is not a robust prediction, more like a what if scenario
This doesn't yet match how the public funding rules of parties really works and is currently inaccurate
- This assumes a population growth of 1.5% per year
- There's a large jump from 0 years to 1 year. This is because at the last election each first preference is $3.5 public funding for that party From the next election onwards each first preference is $5 of public funding
- A bug seems to be applying generation change at year 0 - % of FP votes at 0 years should be the same as the election
- Based on first preference data per generation from