Victoria Election Simulation

Resolve – 2026-03-24

Majority threshold: 45 seats

ALP

Avg: 40.2

Majority chance: 27.4%

90% range: 29 – 50

FP: 27%

Coalition

Avg: 42.8

Majority chance: 36.7%

90% range: 33 – 55

FP: 29%

Greens

Avg: 3.5

90% range: 2 – 4

FP: 10%

PHON

Avg: 0.6

90% range: 0 – 1

FP: 21%

What the heck is going on here?

This is a very simple simulation of the upcoming Victoria State election

  • The election is simulated 50K times adding in random polling errors

  • 100 simulated elections are shown on a line graph, sorted from highest incumbant seats to least incumbant seats
  • This model is limited and likely under predicting crossbench seats
  • Seemingly paradoxically I think that it's also overestimating the chance of a hung parliament
  • Tweaks are needed to preference flows - on a 2PP of ALP 50 - 50 Coalition it seems to unrealistically favour one side by a large margin
Danno 17/02/2026
Fed 25 Demographics Simulation