Victoria Election Simulation

Freshwater – 2026-03-24

Majority threshold: 45 seats

ALP

Avg: 43.8

Majority chance: 50.4%

90% range: 34 – 52

FP: 27%

Coalition

Avg: 39.2

Majority chance: 17.4%

90% range: 31 – 50

FP: 30%

Greens

Avg: 3.9

90% range: 3 – 5

FP: 14%

PHON

Avg: 0.4

90% range: 0 – 1

FP: 20%

What the heck is going on here?

This is a very simple simulation of the upcoming Victoria State election

  • The election is simulated 50K times adding in random polling errors

  • 100 simulated elections are shown on a line graph, sorted from highest incumbant seats to least incumbant seats
  • This model is limited and likely under predicting crossbench seats
  • Seemingly paradoxically I think that it's also overestimating the chance of a hung parliament
  • Tweaks are needed to preference flows - on a 2PP of ALP 50 - 50 Coalition it seems to unrealistically favour one side by a large margin
Danno 17/02/2026
Fed 25 Demographics Simulation